Though we’re not even halfway into 2025, it’s already been a huge year for film. We’ve already had some huge releases such as Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy, Captain America: Brave New World and A Minecraft Movie alongside some huge casting announcements for films, such as a series of Beatles biopics, and the next Avengers film, Avengers: Doomsday.
That said, May is just around the corner – and the month looks like it’s going to be kickstarting a run of huge summer blockbusters, with some of 2025’s most anticipated films being released throughout the month.
However, in the era of social media, many film fans wait for the reviews to roll in before booking their seats, and one scoring platform is trusted above all: Rotten Tomatoes.
The iconic ‘Tomatometer’ is a collection of hundreds of opinions from professional critics, and gives fans a solid idea of what they’ll think of the film before its release. The platform claims it “serves as a trusted measurement of critical entertainment recommendation for millions of fans.”
So, which of May’s huge releases are going to be making their way to the top of the Tomatometer and be certified fresh and which are going to be deemed rotten by the critics? The Kalshi odds are in…
How Likely Are May’s Biggest Blockbusters Going To Be ‘Certified Fresh’?
For context, for a film to be ‘certified fresh’, it must gain a score above 75% on the Tomatometer – we’ve gathered the most up-to-date Kalshi odds on May’s biggest releases.
| Film | Implied Probability of 75% Score | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning | 98% | -4900 |
| Thunderbolts* | 78% | -355 |
| Lilo & Stitch | 58% | -138 |
| Karate Kid: Legends | 41% | +144 |
| Final Destination: Bloodlines | 13% | +669 |
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Mission: Impossible Looking Likely To Be May’s Best Seller
Easily one of 2025’s most anticipated films, it comes as no surprise that the new Mission: Impossible instalment is the favourite to receive the highest Rotten Tomatoes score.
Whilst it isn’t clear if this will be the final film in the franchise, it is the eighth instalment and is said to be the conclusion to a 30-year story arc. It’ll be a direct sequel to 2023’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One with a massive $400 million budget.
In my opinion, this will be an easy sweep for the franchise. The trailers released for the film so far have had a great reception from fans, with many looking forward to appearances from recurring characters such as Grace (Hayley Atwell), Benji Dunn (Simon Pegg) and Luther Stickwell (Ving Rhames).
Cruise was essentially handed a blank cheque as a budget for the film, with an estimated budget of $400 million, making it one of the most expensive films ever made. However, the previous instalment grossed $571.1 million at the box office, so there’s little doubt the film won’t profit massively despite its budget.
With little news around the James Bond film, film fans are desperate for a good spy flick in 2025 – and it doesn’t look like Tom Cruise and his impressive stunts are going to disappoint.
Will The MCU Finally Have Another Hit On Their Hands?
The Marvel Cinematic Universe dominated cinemas a few years ago and breathed new life into the superhero genre. However, some would argue that post-2019’s Avengers: Endgame, it’s just…not been the same.
Whilst a franchise that releases on average 3 films a year – all usually interconnected in some way – is unlikely to have a hit on their hands every time, many of their recent projects haven’t been well received. Their most recent release, Captain America: Brave New World, only scored 48% on the Tomatometer (however, it did get a 78% audience rating).
However, Thunderbolts* have fans new and old, excited, with many thinking the film will be a hit for the studio, especially with early reviews following early screenings of the movie.
Audiences perked up following a trailer for the film that dropped in March, which had a considerably different tone to previous Marvel trailers, and championed the creative team behind the film, something the studio also doesn’t usually focus on.
It also seems like one of the film’s leads, Florence Pugh, has also taken a trick out of Tom Cruise’s book, as it was revealed she base jumped off Merdeka 118 in Kuala Lumpur, the second-tallest building on Earth, as part of a stunt for the film. Again, exciting audiences, as many of the recent MCU projects have been criticised for poor special effects and CGI.
Pugh claimed that she was told the stunt would be a ‘crazy insurance ordeal,’ but with early reviews saying it’s one of the best Marvel projects of recent years, it might just have been worth it…
Will Lilo & Stitch Break The Disney Live-Action Curse?
There’s little denying that Disney’s run of live-action adaptations hasn’t been the most well-received. Whilst Snow White has been one of the highest-grossing films of the year, it only gained 40% on the Tomatometer.
Following the reception the adaptation got, it’s even been reported that Disney have put a pause on the production of their live-action adaptations.
However, the release of Lilo & Stitch might change that – with 58% of betters thinking it will be certified fresh upon release. The original animated film could still be considered one of the more ‘modern’ Disney classics, and is a family favourite amongst younger children and parents who grew up watching the film.
With many excited to see Stitch bring his lovable chaos to live-action, Lilo & Stitch could potentially be enough to save Disney’s live-action adaptations.
Karate Kid: Legends Might Win Over Audiences, Despite Delays
Karate Kid is a long-running franchise, with the original film being considered an 80’s classic. The franchise spawned four films, alongside a remake in 2010, and a successful TV series, Cobra Kai.
The film serves as a sequel to Cobra Kai, which ran from 2018 to 2025, and serves as a prequel to the original run of films, and includes Ralph Macchio returning to his iconic role as Daniel LaRusso.
Macchio will also be returning to Legends, alongside the iconic Jackie Chan, which is definitely a pull for older audiences who might have been fans of the original films. However, the thought of having to potentially catch up with six seasons of Cobra Kai might be off-putting if they haven’t watched it.
The film was due to be released last June, but was affected by the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strikes and delayed to December 2024, only to be moved yet again to avoid conflict with the final season of Cobra Kai.
However, with almost 50% of betters thinking it’ll be certified fresh, maybe the hype hasn’t died down too much.
Reminder:
Final Destination: Bloodlines Is Looking To Be May’s Biggest Flop
Listen, we know that the Final Destination movies are iconic in their own right – but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re good.
It’s been over a decade since the previous Final Destination film, so many are asking why we’re getting a sequel now and if it’ll be any good. Unfortunately, fans don’t seem to have much hope, with only 13% of betters believing it’ll get above 75% on the Tomatometer.
However, we think this might be a bit harsh. We’ve seen a huge rise in the success of horrors recently, with the likes of The Substance, Nosferatu, and most recently Sinners being critically acclaimed. Final Destination has a lot more lore and backstory to it that casual watchers might not be aware of, but it has created somewhat of a cult following for the franchise, so maybe this could be the start of something exciting for an old horror franchise?
Is Kalshi Safe?
If you’re wondering if Kalshi is safe to use, you don’t need to worry. Kalshi is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulated prediction market, meaning that they are heavily regulated and supervised.
This means that wagering on hypothetical outcomes on Kalshi is as safe as wagering on sportsbooks like FanDuel.
