For most of this year’s award season, it looked like Adrien Brody from “The Brutalist” would easily win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars. However, a scandal involving The Brutalist’s use of AI to correct Brody’s Hungarian accent sent a ripple through the predictions market and Brody is no longer a lock to win Best Actor.
Timothee Chalamet, who played Bob Dylan in the biopic “A Complete Unknown,” has been gaining momentum. It’s now a much closer race than anyone anticipated heading into the final week before the Oscars.
| 2025 Oscars Best Actor | Kalshi | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | 65% | -225 |
| Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | 32% | +175 |
Brody and Chalamet grew up in New York City and both attended the same high school, albeit two decades apart, at the renowned LaGuardia High School of Performing Arts. The two former grads are pitted against each other in this year’s Oscars race for Best Actor that also included Ralph Fiennes from “Conclave”, Sebastian Stan from “The Apprentice,” and Colman Domingo from “Sing Sing.”
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Brody won his first and only Oscar in 2003 for his role as a classical composer and Holocaust survivor in “The Pianist.” It took him over 20 years to earn his most-recent nomination, and he once again portrays a Jewish Holocaust survivor. The Brutalist captures his journey from postwar Europe to America where the Hungarian immigrant attempts to rebuild his career as a complicated, yet ingenious architect.
Brody played a real person, Wladyslaw Szpilman in The Pianist, but his role in The Brutalist is a fictional character. Brody’s Laszlo Toth is loosely based on Brutalist architects, Marcel Breuer and Erno Goldfinger, who fled Europe in the wake of WWII.
A scandal arose when the film editor revealed they utilized AI software to improve the audio and enhance Brody’s Hungarian accent. Although a film’s sound and audio are commonly manipulated and improved in the postproduction process, the use of AI became a controversial issue. This AI scandal arose after The Brutalist won several awards at the Golden Globes including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor for Brody. It’s unknown if this controversy will have a negative effect on this year’s Oscars race.
Brody looked stunned last Sunday when he did not win Best Actor at the SAG Awards in L.A. Although the acting guild has a much bigger voting body that includes his peers, the use of AI software could be a contributing factor why Brody lost to Chalamet. The most recent SAG strike included tense negotiations limiting the use of AI in the creative process.
Brody has already picked up victories for Best Actor at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics Choice Awards. He was -200 odds to win again at the Oscars according to several sportsbooks in early February. He’s currently -225.
Brody’s chances to win Best Actor was 76% last week on Kalshi. After losing at the SAG Awards, his price dipped as low as 59% on Monday before settling at 67%. That current percentage translates to -185 on the moneyline.
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
With A Complete Unknown, Chalamet faced a challenge trying to play the elusive, yet iconic Bob Dylan. It was a difficult role because Dylan is so beloved by rabid fans. The key to Chalamet’s portrayal was that he did not mimic or imitate Dylan, who has one of the more unique and recognizable voices and singing styles. Chalamet pulled off a strong performance that was as close to the real Dylan without going over the top while making the role completely his own.
Director James Mangold prefers actors who can sing their own parts in his films. That’s what happened with Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon in the Johnny Cash biopic. Mangold sought to replicate the feat with Chalamet, who played guitar and sang in A Complete Unknown.
The Academy loves to reward actors who play real-life people. Chalamet might have a slight edge this year as Dylan in A Complete Unknown because Brody’s main character in The Brutalist is fictional.
Chalamet had joked numerous times that he regularly appears on the awards circuit yet leaves each ceremony empty-handed because Brody has been winning all the awards. Chalamet finally had a chance to step into the limelight with a victory at the SAG Awards. Chalamet was shocked to hear his name called. He did not expect to win and did not have a prepared speech.
According to Kalshi, Chalamet was as low as 21% to win Best Actor at the start of the awards season in January. Just last week, he dipped to 19.5% before he shot up after his SAG victory. He’s now 32%, which is approximately +215 on the moneyline.
In early February, Chalamet was +200 odds to win Best Actor at most sportsbooks. He bumped to +175 after his SAG win. If you’re looking for a value bet and think the AI controversy will hurt Brody, then Chalamet is worthy of a flier because he’s well within striking distance of Brody.
