Moneyline vs Spread Quick Overview
The difference between spread and moneyline is simple in the surface. With Moneyline bets, you pick the winner of the game straight up. With Spread Bets, youâll also for the margin of victory.
| Moneyline | Spread Bet |
| Bet on the Winner | Bet on the Winning Margin |
| Example: Bucks ML | Example: Bucks +6.5 |
| Easier to Win | Harder to Win |
| Lower Payouts | Better Payouts |
What Is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet is the most basic betting option at most sportsbooks. You are simply picking the winner of the game. In sports where overtime is an option, the moneyline means the winner of the game after the overtime.
Example of a Moneyline Bet
With moneyline bets, the favorite will always have negative odds and the underdog will have positive odds. Hereâs what these negative vs positive betting odds would look like:
- Chicago Bulls -165
- Milwaukee Bucks +185
The Bulls are the favorites in this matchup. Therefore, they have negative odds of -165. It would take a $165 bet on the Bulls to win just $100.
Meanwhile, Bucks as the underdog have positive odds of +185. A $100 bet on the Bucsks would result in a payout of $185.
For more details on payouts, check How much would I win if I bet $100 calculator.
Advantages of a Moneyline Bet
As you can see, a moneyline bet on the underdog gives you a chance to win big bucks. If you know what youâre doing, this can really work to your advantage.
However, you should be warned that beating the sportsbooks on betting the underdogs is rarely a viable betting strategy in the long term. Unless youâre betting on a sport where youâre sure you have more information than the books, youâll likely end up on the losing side in the long term.
There are some exceptions to this, like betting early in the MLB season / pre-season. Before the books have accurate pitching and batting data, the underdog odds tend to have a slight advantage against what the books predict â but to capitalize on this, you really need to know which underdogs to choose.
Disadvantages of the Moneyline Bet
Moneyline bets tend to have more disadvantages than advantages, especially if youâre betting on the favorites. First of all, when you bet on the moneyline favorite, your payouts are lower and you need to risk more money.
Sportsbooks are also very good at sniffing out the publics favorites and can lower the line even further, meaning that what you stand to win is not in line with the risk youâre taking.
This is easy to see if you compare home team odds in a certain state vs another state. For example, the odds for Eagles in Pennsylvania tend to be slightly lower than they are in New Jersey (even though this varies from book to book).
Therefore, betting on the moneyline favorite is usually not the best bet you can find.
When to Bet on the Moneyline
There are a few scenarios where you should choose the moneyline. These are usually games where you have a strong opinion on the winner, but itâs on a low scoring sport like hockey or soccer.
Why? Because a confindent victory in these sports can be achieved with just one or two goal difference. On the other hand, if youâre not confident that your NFL team will win by at least 6.5, you shouldnât be even thinking of the moneyline due to high scoring nature of football games.
Best Sportsbooks for MoneyLine Bets
What is a Spread Bet
A spread bet is more complex that a moneyline spread as it s for relative team strength. This type of a bet is also referred to âbetting against the spread.â
The goal of a spread bet is to balance the odds in a way that you would find -110 for both teams. The way the sportsbooks do this is by giving one team a handicap while giving the other team an advantage.
For example, if a sportsbook would think that Chiefs are likely to win with a 6 point margin, they might set the spread bet line at Chiefs -6.5. If you were to bet that line and Chiefs were to win with a 6 point margin, youâll lose your bet. If they win with 7 or more, youâll win your bet.
Example of a Spread Bet
Here is what a spread bet might look:
- Chicago Bulls -7.5
- Milwaukee Bucks +7.5
If you are going to make a bet on the Chicago Bulls, then they will have to win this game by at least eight points to make this a successful wager. The Milwaukee Bucks can make you a winner by losing the game by seven points or less, or pulling off the upset.
Advantages of a Spread Bet
Spread bets are generally good when you think a team is favored or underestimated, but not enough for them to lose or pull off an upset. Therefore, they are great option if you watch a certain sport closely.
Spread bets also have a psychological factor behind them. If a team is a huge favorite, will they go for a blowout or rest their key players. If you can identify these patterns, you may find a significant edge in spread bets.
However, be warned. If you identify a pattern, the sportsbooks are more than likely to identify it too.
Disadvantages of Spread Bets
The main disadvantage of spread bets is that sportsbooks use hunderds of different historical datapoints to calculate the spread for major sports. In the long run, itâs extremely hard to beat the sportsbooks just by placing spread bets.
Even if you can confidently hit 50% of your spread bets, you will still lose money in the long run because of the âvigâ â meaning the space between -110 odds on both sides. To consistenly make (any) money from spread bets, you need to hit at least 54% of your spread bets.
The second big disadvantage of spread bets is that teams donât care about your spread. Thatâs why we tend to avoid betting the spread on low scoring sports. A soccer spread, for example, is an unpredictable thing, as the team may decide to defend the 1 goal lead instead of going for the blowout when theyâre up.
When to Beat Against the Spread
Football is the king of spread betting, because you can quite confidently calculate the winning margin. A football game being a one point game is quite rare if you compare it to baseball or hockey.
Therefore, if you have faith in your football team and find the price on the moneyline to be too expensive, choose the spread. Funny enough, the opposite is also true. If you think itâs going to be a close game, but not close enough for the favorite to loose, you should also go for the spread, but for the underdog.
Alternative Lines
Some sportsbooks let you pick your own spread. This is also known as âbuying pointsâ. For example, if the line for the Lakers is at -6.5, but you believe they will win by exactly 6, you can âbuy a pointâ and adjust the spread to -5.5
Buying a point will lower your odds, but it will also let you choose the spread that you like. This option is only available at the biggest US sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings and isnât offered for every game.
Best Sportsbooks for Spread Betting
When to Bet on Spread vs Moneyline
A moneyline bet is often a much better option for betting on the underdog. It rewards upsets, but has low payouts on favorites.
A spread bet is usually your best bet on the favorite. But keep in mind that you still need to ensure itâs right for your specific circumstances. Donât always just make a bet against the spread because the option is available to you.
However, the right choice always depends on the game and sport in question. You should always do proper research before placing your bet. Below, weâll delve into some advanced strategies on ML vs Spread Bets.
Take the Moneyline on Less than 3 Point Spreads
If the spread is small, usually less than 3 points, itâs not worth playing in football or basketball. We know that some hard-core pros will disagree with this advantage and claim that this is exactly where youâll find the edge.
However, if youâre betting for fun, choosing a less than 3 point spread is usually pointless. You are not winning a lot more, but are generally risking money on a situation where the sportsbook has an advantage. If the line is very tight, the sportsbooks have enough data to calculate that it could go either way.
Take The Spread For and Against Big Favorites (-250)
For games with large difference in team strength, we suggest you play the spread. For example, if youâre confident on a blowout, just take the spread on the favorite. Bets with odds less than -250 are hardly worth the risk youâre taking.
The same is true for underdogs that usually donât concede a lot of points and can keep the game close. Even if they would lose, you can still win some money from the underdog keeping the game close if you choose the spread.
Moneyline vs Spread in Different Sports
Choosing the right bet type often depend on the sport youâre betting too. In some sports like football, spread betting is better. In others, like soccer, moneyline might often be the stronger choice.
Football
Spread Bets are the bread and butter of football betting because of the large scoring differences. Moneylines in the NFL donât tend to have a lot of value, as there is often a clear favorite and a clear underdog. This is even more true for college football.
Moneylines have their place in football betting too. Even though you should almost always choose the spread in football betting, some underdogs will have good value on the moneyline. Therefore, if youâre truly confident in the uderdog, bet the moneyline.
Key Numbers for Football Spread Betting
In order to get the most out of football spread betting, you need to understand the most common winning margins. Below weâve illustrated the numbers that are most relevant for spread betting and why.
| Margin | % of Games Ending in This Margin | Relevance to Spread Betting |
|---|---|---|
| 3 points | ~15% | The most common margin due to field goals in close games. |
| 7 points | ~9% | One full touchdown & extra point. A frequent "cover" number. |
| 6 points | ~6% | A touchdown with a missed extra point or failed two-point conversion. |
| 10 points | ~5% | Common in games where a team scores a TD & a field goal. |
| 4 points | ~5% | Two safeties, a TD with a failed 2PT conversion, or a FG + TD sequence. |
| 14 points | ~4% | A two-touchdown win. Important for big favorites. |
Basketball
Basketball scores run up to 200+ points, so itâs quite obvious that spread betting is the way to go in most NCAAB and NBA games. However, there are some cases where you could consider an NBA moneyline bet too.
If you see a favorite with a spread of less than four points (3.5 and below), it might be a good idea to hit the moneyline. While buzzer beater games are rare, there are still several of those in the NBA each season, and you would hate to lose your bet after your team pulls of a comeback in the last offensive play and wins by 2.
Key Numbers for Basketball Spread Betting
As with football, there are some key numbers that you should be aware of if you plan on betting against the spread in the NBA.
| Margin | % of Games Ending in This Margin | Relevance to Spread Betting |
|---|---|---|
| 5 points | ~7.5% | A common end-game result after intentional fouling. |
| 7 points | ~6.8% | Two-possession games often settle at this number. |
| 3 points | ~6.5% | Key due to last-second three-point attempts. |
| 1 point | ~6.0% | One-possession buzzer-beaters create these outcomes. |
| 2 points | ~5.5% | Occurs often in tight finishes or missed FTs. |
Baseball
Moneyline is by far the best bet for MLB. Runlines (the MLB term for spread betting) are notoriously unreliable and hard to predict. While you can get some advantage in MBL betting by reading wind charts and umpire stats when you bet on overs and unders, itâs a nightmare if youâre deciding who has the advantage.
Furthermore, the runline in baseball is almost always +1.5 which leaves very little leeway to either direction. If there is no clear favorite in the game, we always recommend moneyĂślines for baseball.
Hockey
Hockey is another sport where moneyline is the king, and itâs for a very obivous reason â the teamsâ tendency to play empty netted when they are losing by one or two.
The empty-net strategy makes NHL a nightmare for puckline (NHL variation of spread betting). Even if the puckline is 2.5, a team losing by 2 can pull of their goalie and potentially destroy your +2.5 goals lock.
Soccer
Moneyline is also the king in soccer due to the low scoring nature of the games. Itâs uncommon to see more than -1 spread in soccer games, which doesnât really make spread betting too valuable.
On the other hand, soccer has a very unique system of spread betting, called Asian Handicap. However, this system is quite complex and we donât recommend that beginners dabble in Asian spread.
Advanced Strategies
Both moneyline and spread bets also lend theirselves well to advanced betting strategies. The following strategies are only for the more experienced bettors, and if youâre a beginner, you should be very careful before trying them out.
Spread Bets and Reverse Line Movement
Reverse Line Movement (RLM) is one of the most effective strategies you can use to identify where professional money is going. It is also one of the most time consuming.
Rverse Line Movement happens when a betting line moves in the opposite direction of public betting percentages. For example, if 70% of bettors are wagering on an NFL favorite at -6.5, but the line moves down to -6 or even -5.5, this signals sharp money (large bets from professional bettors) backing the underdog.
To capitalize on RLM, you should monitor line movements in real time and compare them to public betting trends. If a spread or moneyline moves against public consensus, it suggests that sharps see value on the less popular side.
However, tracking line movements is extremely time consuming and if you get it wrong, youâll be betting blind. Unless you have a tool or a website that will automatically track the spread for you, this strategy is very hard to implement.
Middle Betting
Middle betting also known as âmiddling,â happens when you placeb betson opposite sides of a game at different point spreads or odds, creating a scenario where both bets can win.
For example, if an NFL team opens as a -3.5 favorite, and the line later shifts to -6.5, you could take the favorite at -3.5 early and then bet the underdog at +6.5 later. If the favorite wins by exactly 4, 5, or 6 points, both bets cash, resulting in a double win.
Even in the worst case scenario, one of these bets will win, and youâll only lose a little. The downside with middling is itâs rarity. To find good middle betting opportunities, you need to look across multiple sportsbooks constantly (or have a designated tool for it).
Correlated Parlays
You can also use spread and moneyline parlays to create correlated outcomes that improve your odds of winning. In sports like basketball and football, where spreads are heavily influenced by game tempo and scoring trends, parlaying a moneyline favorite with a point spread in another game can be a strategic way to increase value.
Sportsbooks even offer same-game parlays, where bettors can combine a teamâs moneyline with an adjusted spread to improve odds while keeping their risk controlled. However, while these bets provide higher payouts, they also come with greater variance, as even one losing leg results in a total loss.
This is why you should target key numbers in spreads (like -2.5, +3.5 in NFL) and selectively mix moneyline and spread bets where they see a strong probability of both outcomes hitting.
Caution: Same Game Parlays are the biggest single money maker for sportsbooks in the US. Correlated parlays are a very advanced strategy, and unless you really understand the correlation between events on the field, you should not play them if you want to win in the long run.
How Often Do Favorites Cover the Spread
Historical data for spread bets is hard to evaluate accurately. However, for the 2024 â 2025 NFL season, we can look at a few key stats:
- The Average Spread: -1.4
- Favorites Covered: 53.8%
- Underdogs Covered: 46.2%
This means that it would have been slightly more profitable to bet on the favorites spread throughout the 2024 â 2025 season. However, if we count in the -110 odds, you would still have lost a little bit of money if you were to bet the favoritesâ spread on each NFL game.
Historical Data
Below, you can find the historical against the spread data since 2020 for both the NFL and the NBA.
NFL Historical Against the Spread Data
| Team | ATS Record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit | 56-32-0 | 63.6% |
| Cincinnati | 53-34-3 | 60.9% |
| Baltimore | 50-38-3 | 56.8% |
| Green Bay | 51-39-0 | 56.7% |
| Pittsburgh | 49-38-1 | 56.3% |
| Miami | 47-38-1 | 55.3% |
| Buffalo | 50-42-3 | 54.4% |
| LA Chargers | 45-39-2 | 53.6% |
| LA Rams | 48-42-3 | 53.3% |
| Arizona | 45-40-0 | 52.9% |
| Dallas | 46-42-0 | 52.3% |
| Tampa Bay | 48-45-1 | 51.6% |
| Washington | 42-41-5 | 50.6% |
| Indianapolis | 43-42-0 | 50.6% |
| Denver | 42-42-1 | 50.0% |
| Philadelphia | 45-45-3 | 50.0% |
| San Francisco | 46-47-0 | 49.5% |
| NY Giants | 42-43-1 | 49.4% |
| Las Vegas | 41-42-2 | 49.4% |
| Minnesota | 40-41-5 | 49.4% |
| Kansas City | 48-50-2 | 49.0% |
| Houston | 41-44-3 | 48.2% |
| Jacksonville | 40-45-1 | 47.1% |
| New Orleans | 39-46-1 | 45.9% |
| Seattle | 38-45-3 | 45.8% |
| New England | 36-46-3 | 43.9% |
| Chicago | 35-45-5 | 43.8% |
| Cleveland | 37-49-1 | 43.0% |
| Carolina | 35-47-2 | 42.7% |
| Tennessee | 35-49-2 | 41.7% |
| Atlanta | 33-49-2 | 40.2% |
| NY Jets | 32-51-1 | 38.6% |
NBA Historical Against the Spread Data
| Team | ATS Record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Okla City | 210-166-13 | 55.9% |
| Memphis | 216-179-6 | 54.7% |
| New York | 212-185-8 | 53.4% |
| Dallas | 216-200-8 | 51.9% |
| Orlando | 197-183-5 | 51.8% |
| Philadelphia | 212-198-8 | 51.7% |
| Boston | 225-211-10 | 51.6% |
| Utah | 199-187-7 | 51.6% |
| Golden State | 209-198-7 | 51.4% |
| Detroit | 185-179-13 | 50.8% |
| Chicago | 191-187-8 | 50.5% |
| Cleveland | 194-190-11 | 50.5% |
| LA Clippers | 205-201-2 | 50.5% |
| Indiana | 195-193-7 | 50.3% |
| Toronto | 189-189-6 | 50.0% |
| Minnesota | 198-202-7 | 49.5% |
| San Antonio | 184-189-4 | 49.3% |
| Phoenix | 207-213-6 | 49.3% |
| Sacramento | 185-191-9 | 49.2% |
| Denver | 206-213-4 | 49.2% |
| Charlotte | 181-189-7 | 48.9% |
| New Orleans | 188-198-5 | 48.7% |
| Miami | 203-217-9 | 48.3% |
| Portland | 182-197-4 | 48.0% |
| Milwaukee | 198-216-8 | 47.8% |
| Brooklyn | 186-203-8 | 47.8% |
| LA Lakers | 192-210-3 | 47.8% |
| Washington | 175-196-12 | 47.2% |
| Houston | 172-196-9 | 46.7% |
| Atlanta | 186-222-2 | 45.6% |
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Moneyline vs Spread Betting FAQs
- Which Bet is the Best for Beginners?
-
Moneyline bets are the simplest. Therefore, they are the best bets for beginners who are just looking to have some fun.
- Why do Spread Bets include the half point?
-
The half point in spread bets is there to avoid a push, which happens when neither side wins the bet. By adding the .5 to the spread, the sportsbooks can make sure there is always a winning and a losing side.
- What happens to spread bets on overtime?
-
Spread bets will only be graded after overtime has ended. Therefore, if the teams tie, your will only knew whether your spread bet wins or loses after the overtime has finished.
